Analytics Page: Win/Loss Probability by Stage

Overview

The Win/Loss Probability by Stage chart shows how deal outcomes evolve as opportunities progress through the sales funnel. For each stage, it displays:

• The probability that deals ultimately close won
• The probability that deals ultimately close lost
• The probability that deals are lost specifically at that stage

This view helps Sales Ops understand how confidence changes by stage and where deals are most vulnerable to loss.

How to Read the Chart

• Each sales stage is shown along the horizontal axis.
• Bars represent outcome probabilities based on historical deal data.
• Total Won reflects the share of deals that eventually closed won after reaching that stage.
• Total Lost reflects the share of deals that eventually closed lost after reaching that stage.
• Lost at This Stage highlights where deals most commonly exit the funnel.

For example, a stage with a high “lost at this stage” probability represents a common drop-off point in the sales process.

What This Chart Is (and Isn’t)

This chart is:

• A way to measure deal confidence by stage
• A tool for identifying high-risk stages
• Useful for understanding where losses tend to occur

This chart is not:

• A guarantee that a deal at a given stage will close
• A replacement for deal-level risk assessment
• A measure of rep performance

How Sales Ops Should Use This

• Identify stages where loss risk remains high
• Strengthen qualification and validation before deals enter high-risk stages
• Adjust forecast confidence based on stage-level probabilities
• Focus enablement and inspection on stages with high drop-off

For example, if deals are frequently lost during evaluation, Sales Ops may tighten exit criteria or introduce additional stakeholder validation earlier.

Sales Ops – Recommended Actions

Stage Risk Management

• Treat stages with high loss probability as risk checkpoints.
• Require stronger validation before advancing deals into later stages.

Forecast Discipline

• Align forecast categories and confidence levels with stage-level win probabilities.
• Challenge commits in stages where loss probability remains elevated.

Process Improvements

• Review stage definitions and required activities where losses concentrate.
• Address recurring drop-off points through enablement or process changes.

Trend Monitoring

• Track changes in win/loss probability by stage over time.
• Use shifts as early signals of funnel health changes.

Important Interpretation Notes

• Probabilities are based on historical outcomes, not guarantees.
• Deals may progress differently depending on context, deal size, and execution.
• Stage definitions and usage affect results.
• Always interpret probabilities alongside deal context and qualitative judgment.